The list of upcoming assignments is not known

The group BP there means to retain its independence In a note to research published at the beginning of week, JP Morgan openly question. Since the explosion of the Deepwater Horizon platform, on 20 April, the British tanker saw its market capitalization melt $ 100 billion. An amount exceeding the cost estimates of the oil spill in the Gulf of the Mexico (Credit Switzerland has mentioned the figure of $ 37 billion). "The market has lost sight the intrinsic value of the assets of a company as rich as BP.". "We doubt much that this is the case of the major players in the industry," writes JP Morgan. Behind the scenes, the investment bankers enable to build scenarios of takeover of the group. "The sector is changing," says one of them.

Who would have kidneys strong enough to return to BP, which is still valued $ 89 billion Given their size, ExxonMobil and Shell would be the most serious candidates. Since the beginning of the disaster, BP has lost about 40 of its value against the two groups, noted JP Morgan. Valued at $ 292 billion, the U.S. giant has the expertise of large mergers and led successfully the integration of Mobil. Intervention of Shell have the advantage to reassure the British Government. The synergies between the two groups appear not to doubt since, in 2004, the previous pattern of BP, lord Brown, had proposed a marriage with Shell.

On paper, PetroChina would also have the means to acquire BP. However, this type of nonregulatory outcome would likely be difficult politically. In 2005, the attempted takeover of the American Unocal by the CNOOC Chinese was hit with a shot of dam in the United States.

A scenario "unrealistic".

Since the disaster, Chevron and Total are also passed to BP, in terms of market capitalization. With the exception of the aborted project to purchase the Canadian Nexen, HABs group was not aggressive in terms of acquisitions since its OPA surprise on Elf. "Of course, leaders look the record BP", provides a close to the group. But "the leaders are aware of the cultural divide and the difficulty to integrate an Anglo-Saxon company of this size," says a consultant. Even do a large merger to pull themselves among the super-majors, the French oil tanker probably would prefer to agree with Italian ENI.

What deadline could a takeover bid intervene "BP will save its skin at least until August," judge a professional. No one believes in a transaction until the leak is stopped through the drilling of two wells in relief. If all goes well, an estimate of the costs will be more credible and the "politico-médiatique" risk will be considerably reduced. This will open a window of shooting. The British tanker will be the time to recover 100 billions of dollars of capitalization lost indeed.

Possible on paper and there pushed by the investment bankers, this kind of scenario is nevertheless much skepticism among analysts as among professionals. Each point to the competition problems in refining and gas stations, the "unmanageable" size of the new set. The other, the opposition of the British Government an assignment and the unparalleled magnitude of the disaster and its consequences. "A takeover bid seems me completely unrealistic." "There will be litigation for decades with individuals, companies, partners and the Government," said an observer from the sector.

Loss of credibility

Another track: If oil continues to escape long beyond this summer, followed by bankruptcy of BP to a dismantling seem more impossible. The prospect of the US elections in November could also push the Obama administration to ask for more money to BP.

Even in a less dramatic scenario, Shell, ExxonMobil and others can always take advantage of the 10 billion of assets that must be sale BP, to pay the damage of the spill. The list of upcoming assignments is not known. Nomura CITES mixed participation in the Argentine Pan American, and assets to the Canada, in Trinidad and in Indonesian LNG. BP will probably also have to reduce its exposure to the United States, in view of its loss of credibility in the country.

This assignment process is already a covetous. Tuesday, the Russian leader of TNK - BP, Maxim Barsky, has openly announced his interest in assets in European refining, offshore or gas non-conventional.

This reduction in perimeter will double to a radical change of perception. "BP is compromised irreversibly." "In the future, are unlikely to become of the plague in the eyes of the industry and Governments", find a veteran of the sector. Yesterday still associated with Shell, Total and Chevron, the company may well become tomorrow a tanker of second category.