The Palestinians are too weak and divided

In the aftermath of the Yom Kippur war, Henry Kissinger had practised with success the diplomacy of the "shuttle" between Damascus and Jerusalem. He had close views of the Syrians and the Israelis without that "officially" the two sides meet.

Today, and it is a sign of the decline in the hopes of peace, the great ambition of the Barack Obama Special Envoy, George Mitchell, is to "reboot the pump" of negotiations between Palestinians and Israelis negotiate separately with the two parties.

It is natural, legitimate, to address this new initiative with caution if not scepticism. The chances of success are slim, the huge risk of failure. The imbalance between the two parties (are they not three today with Hamas) became too large. The Palestinians are too weak and divided. The Israelis, behind their wall of security and the top of their brilliant economic success, are the maintenance of the "status quo" If comfortable. Of course, the threat of a nuclear Iran and the harsh realities of demography cast a shadow on this table, but between despair and the radicalization of each comfort and the "droitisation" of the other, is there still a possible compromise

The solution of two States, Palestine and Israel, living in peace and dignity was probably the only desirable because reconciling ethics and realism. In its current borders, Israel cannot remain both Jewish and democratic. This solution is not made. Is it not already too late today History, said, I not iron plates.

And yet are there alternatives that are satisfactory in the long term, Israel, for the Palestinians, the regional environment and for the international community as a whole

Less consider that Israel is only a "temporary reality" who survives by force and which will disappear one day by force, that the Palestinians have what they deserve and that throughout the region can only sink into chaos and despair, he must return, no matter what the solution of two States.

In the context of the American initiative for reconciliation between the Palestinian and Israeli points of view, five central points are to remember.

First, it is still the United States who hold the best cards, because they are alone can positive as negative on the parties, including Hamas, to little pressure that they really have the will.

Then, do not "despair" the Syria. Damascus does not hold the keys to peace between Palestinians and Israelis, but his ability to nuisance remains real. Declare as recently the Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs, Avigdor Lieberman, that "the Golan Heights is not negotiable" does not contribute to the reconciliation of the points of view.

The role of the Turkey as a regional intermediate between the Syria and Israel is also important. If Egypt plays more the role that should be hers and Saudi Arabia does not yet play this role, the Turkey reconciling islam, modernity and diplomatic voluntarism is unavoidable. The significant deterioration of relations between the Turkey and Israel is very worrying.

The European Union must maintain its commitment to the peace process; keep the doors of the Union at least ajar at the Turkey is also part of this perspective. More generally, has the lack of progress between Israelis and Palestinians not contributed to the paralysis of the Union for the Mediterranean

Finally, there is a connection between the Iranian record and the reopening of the Middle East peace process. Revive negotiations, before the adoption of a policy of harsh sanctions against the regime, it is counter, in part at least, the arguments of Tehran for the "Arab Street".

In the Israeli-Palestinian case, the international community behind the United States must more than ever, reconcile "the pessimism of reason with the optimism of the will."