The letter however remains a vibrant news

Call Paul-Louis. Behind this name hides the French CAC 40, a contractor giant boss more than a Manager. A Honourable correspondent has send me the email that he had recently sent to its managers. Difficult to find clearer to describe the coming year. "The French economy does not appear to have resumed its walk in front of convincingly", wrote Paul Louis. Nobody would dare contradict. "A recovery is some few privileged sectors, but hesitant rest in General." ... Money injected by the Government in the economy in respect of the recovery could still make its total effect, because for the most part, companies, concerned, have expected. The effect of this monetary makeup may take place only in a few months. "It is true that the car benefited well case-sensitive premium. The construction began to record the effects of the plan announced a year ago, and should continue to benefit in 2010.

Paul-Louis then details the prospects. "The recent increase in petroleum products is a negative factor;" only the inflation control brings an element of relative satisfaction. "Barrel of oil has nearly doubled since the beginning of the year, but the price is not a problem, even though it concerned as always our German friends. And international "The major countries, customers or suppliers of the France, live for the most difficult moments." The most prominent economists have, on the situation of national and international, of the divergent opinions; the more experienced politicians seem to have no plan of all established internationally and act on the basis of the needs of the short term. "There still could not be better to say. International trade may again stopping the growth, as is the case for six years.

Can nevertheless think, according to Paul-Louis, that next year "will see a slight recovery, that the increase in domestic production will be low. This is the exact word. Production stagnated in 2010, it would barely 0.5 greater average level of 2009. With billions of stimulus to spend, it is possible to expect a little more. The French Government cautiously predicts growth of 0.75. For once, it is more pessimistic than other forecasters, because its predictions were established early, prior to the confirmation of the signs of upturn appeared this summer. IMF Announces 0.9, 1.2 European Commission and OECD 1.4. After a year 2009 unpredictable and ultimately bad (-2), the year 2010 should be conducted in this poor range of growth around 1. As a result, it is likely "that the unemployment continue, the nominal wage increases will be offset by the cost of living and that the improvement of the purchasing power is very low, if any, to the national stadium". The number of job seekers increased by 500,000 in one year, and this is, alas, not finished.

The pattern derives from these forecasts a principle of simple action: "the control of costs is the priority." "His caution will be in investments which will again decrease, hiring limited to vital positions, always compressed as advertising expenses.

The prudence of Paul-Louis... or rather that of his successors. Because he sent this email, or rather this post, January 6, 1976. After the recession of 1975, the first suffered by France since the second world war. At the time, Paul-Louis Halley led Promodès, a large distribution group (Continent, Champion...) which has since merged with Carrefour. The pattern of its employees to comply is dead dans an air crash in 2003. The letter however remains a vibrant news. This is reassuring at the bottom: the brutal fall of activity that we have experienced this year is not exceptional. It might even give a reason for hope: activity was violently hit in 1976 with a growth of more than 4. A rate that seems today unfortunately out of reach.