It is absolutely crucial that everyone go vote

Two years after its historic victory, Barack Obama is now faced with the threat of a "Republican wave" at the Congress. While it is relatively traditional for the majority suffered a reverse at mid-term, it threatens to be amplified by the frustration of voters on the State of the economy and the high level of unemployment. In addition to all of the 435 seats in the House of representatives, one third of the seats in the Senate and 37 positions of Governor will be presented at stake today.

At least keep the Senate

In the light of the latest polls, the issue is not whether the Democratic Party can retain the House, but rather if it is able to save his majority in the Senate. According to calculations by experts, the thrust of the populist movement of the Tea Party with a quarantine of competitive candidates, the Republicans could win up to 54 seats in the House (against 39 needed for majority), while the Democratic Party could preserve of extreme accuracy its advance in the Senate, with a majority that could fall from 59 to 51 seats.

"It is absolutely crucial that everyone go vote." "This election will not only determine the political scene for the next two years, but for the next twenty or ten", stressed, this weekend, Barack Obama in Philadelphia, at the end of a marathon campaign where it strongly invested. One of the major concerns of the democratic camp is a low rate of participation of young people and the "independent" (centrist voters) whose support was crucial for Barack Obama in November 2008. While the democratic administration was strong to reduce the rate of unemployment under the bar of 8 through the recovery plan, or disappointing results on the front of the job (9.6 of unemployment in September) or the announcement Friday, a low rate of growth of GDP (2) in the third quarter will necessarily help the majority. Two years after the victory of Barack Obama, it is found directly threatened in several critical States, the first in which Nevada where the unemployment rate is the most high of the United States (14.4), but also in Colorado, Illinois, the State of Washington and the Pennsylvania... In addition, on the 37 positions of Governor who hold essential keys for the preparation of the presidential election at the local level, 27 are considered "open".

In the event of serious setbacks in the House, cohabitation with a Republican majority unwilling to compromise may seriously complicate the second part of mandate of Barack Obama.

However, despite their declining popularity at mid-term, a change of majority did not prevent Ronald Reagan, in 1982, or Bill Clinton, in 1994, winning, top hand, a second term President two years later. Everything will depend on the evolution of the economic situation in the coming months, including the impact of the policy of quantitative stimulus of the fed on the growth and evolution of unemployment. While some experts believe that the radicalization of the Republican party sponsored the Tea Party may be used Barack Obama in 2012, other observers, such as the Nobel Prize in economics Paul Krugman, fear the negative impact of paralysis of the administration on the economic situation.