The amending finance law project is built, you know, on the assumption of a reduction of 1.5 of GDP in 2009, recalled Christine Lagarde, Wednesday, at the opening of the debate on the budget collective in the National Assembly. Some are already beginning to shake to say that this figure is widely underestimated, and that he will most likely reach 2. "Unfortunately, all forecasters, of right and left, agree on one point: in more than two quarters, the forecast is totally uncertain. Insee, which precisely limit its forecast in two quarters, is however much more pessimistic: gross domestic product forecast of 1.5 in the first quarter this year, and 0.6 in the second, he says this morning in a memo on the economy will again shed a cold.
An unprecedented scale
The recession growing: in December, the Institute was on a decline of 0.4 and 0.1. The acquis of growth for 2009 to end of June (the average growth over the year if the activity is stabilizing in the second half) stood at 2.9. If the artwork in France since last year's recession should be more limited elsewhere (read here), its magnitude is unprecedented since the second world war. The decline of activity will be much higher than that observed in 1993 ( 0.9) and in 1975 ( 1). To achieve the Government forecast, should be, if the Insee forecast is true, a rebound by 2 on each of last two quarters: so impossible. The probability is much stronger that the decline in the GDP is around 3.
Major between the Government and Insee difference: the prediction of the Statistical Institute incorporates the impact of the collapse of industrial production seen in January, which will weigh heavily on the work of the first quarter and reflects the fall in world demand and is illustrated also by the decline in exports (5.8 in the first quarter ). 76 Percent, "the production capacity utilization rate is now very low," notes Benoît Heitz, head of the cyclical synthesis division: 3.5 points below its 1993 level and 8 percentage points lower than that of long period. With a new found set in the first half, investment will continue its decline, bet the Insee.
Distant horizon for recovery
The destruction of jobs should therefore accelerate at a historic pace (read below): 387.000 in the market sector in the first half, more than the forecast of the Government throughout the year (350,000). The purchasing power of households, however, would be maintained in positive territory in the first half with the disinflation (with a drop in the price of 0.6 over one year in June) and social benefits, which would allow a resistance of household consumption.
With two to three tenths of a point of GDP in the short term, the recovery plan implemented in France should "moderate recession in the second quarter", anticipating the Insee, but without allowing, with a positive evolution of the GDP. On Wednesday, Christine Lagarde explicitly returned the resumption at a relatively distant horizon: "in the first half of 2010 according to some, most likely in the second I."
It applauded the international business experience of Jan du Plessis25 or 300 points less than in September 2008The French subsidiary of GFK done the sameStill need to agree on the modalities of actionHe returned today to Nice on insecurity and delinquency But today is not the case he simply said in the Maghreb and 30 at the close and the Middle EastDebate closedDuring the debate life continues1 billion after deduction of the frankness5 billion in 12 months for the first time
