550 billion behind the Venezuela cubic metres

Worried perplexity in Washington, "surprise" unpleasant in Brasilia, concern in Brussels: beyond the slap against the oil companies, the decision of the Bolivian President, Evo Morales, to nationalize his country oil Announces far-reaching implications, both at Home hydrocarbons represent 15 of the GDP of the Bolivia, the poorest Latin American countries than on international markets. And this not because of its modest oil production (40,000 barrels per day), but because the country is at the head of second South America gas reserves about 1.550 billion behind the Venezuela cubic metres.

Announced Monday, this decision is not, in itself, a surprise. Claimed with force by the indigenous populations, the nationalization of natural resources, logical extension of the law on hydrocarbons adopted in May 2005, was part of the platform of the Indian, triumphantly elected President in December 2005. Last March, it had, moreover, promised to act before July 12, not without ensuring that the oil companies would retain a reasonable ROI.

Nevertheless, the hardness of the Decree of nationalization, signed Monday, with the immediate takeover of the hydrocarbon by the army to "ensure supply", gave this decision a brutal and spectacular nature. Read by Morales at a ceremony at Carapari, in the South of the country, the order shall "State recovers ownership, possession and the total and absolute control of these resources. In other words, deposits are under the influence of the national company YPFB. The 26 foreign oil companies have 180 days to regularize their situation by signing new contracts of operation, otherwise they will have to leave the country. In addition, the State reserves now 82 of oil revenues, to "cover the cost of the operation and investment", said Evo Morales. YPFB will therefore assume the marketing and "define conditions, volumes and prices, both for the internal market and for export. In the aftermath, the head of State promised the nationalization continued: "Tomorrow, it will be mines, forests and all natural resources", was launched before a crowd in La Paz, before the Government Palace.

Psychological impact

The suite will tell if, after having long captured the bulk of the profits of the gas boom, foreign companies will still find an interest to remain in the country. Despite its reservations, the Bolivia does not appear as a major energy challenge at the international level. But most experts fear especially the psychological impact of this move of brilliance rendered oil markets very nervous by the Iranian record on which the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (more Germany) gathered yesterday at a high level in Paris (read also page 18).

In addition, the geopolitical benefits of this announcement, made by the Bolivian President in the wake of a meeting in Havana with Fidel Castro and Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez are far from neutral. During this "revolutionary" portray, all three signed a "Trade Treaty of peoples", based on a Venezuelan cheap oil and Cuban assistance in the areas of education and health. The Bolivia has also integrated the Alliance Bolivarian for the Americas, launched by Chavez against "American imperialism". Initiatives which are battering against the CAN (Andean Community of nations, comprising the Bolivia, the Venezuela, the Colombia, the Peru and Ecuador), which Chavez has just slamming the door and moral threat to turn to leave. These ups and downs in any case illustrate the will of Morales to the Bolivia in the wheel of Venezuela, where an act of last January has leap to 50 the taxation of the oil companies and forced the latter to transform the contracts of the 1990s in joint ventures with the public company PDVSA, conceding to 60 of the shares.

A "contagion effect".

Many experts fear a "contagion" effect, in the area and the rise of a block of populist left led by Chavez, while elections are scheduled in Colombia, the Peru, Ecuador in October. A radicalisation of the South American continent followed closely with concern by the Bush administration. But also by the Brazilians. The European Commission she expressed "concern" about the Bolivian Decree of nationalization. "We hope that, before any decision, there is a process of consultation," noted the spokesman Johannes Laitenberger, stressing that the impact of this decision on European investment was in the study.